Elo interim report 1 January–31 March 2024: Return on investment was EUR 1 billion, or 3.3 per cent

The comparison figures in brackets are figures for 31 March 2023, unless otherwise stated.

Key figures for January–March 2024

• The total result was EUR 413.5 (34.4) million. 
• Net investment income was 3.3 (1.6) per cent, or EUR 1.0 billion. The market value of the investments was EUR 30.9 (30.0 at the end of 2023) billion. The average 10-year return on investment was 5.7 per cent. This corresponds to an average real return of 3.6 per cent. 
• The operating expenses covered by the expense loading were EUR 19.1 (19.8) million. 
• Premiums written amounted to EUR 1.1 (1.1) billion. A total of EUR 1.2 (1.1) billion was paid in pensions and other benefits. 
• The solvency ratio was 122.5 (121.3 at the end of 2023) per cent and solvency capital was 1.4 (1.5 at the end of 2023) times the solvency limit.  
  
  

Listed equities and hedge fund investments generated the highest returns, real estate investments were close to zero

“Elo's year started strongly with good investment returns, driven by equity investments. Adding to this our first-class customer service, competitive management fee and constantly evolving work ability management services, we can be satisfied with the start of the year,” says Elo’s CEO Carl Pettersson.

In the first quarter of the year, equity market returns were strong in the US and European main markets. Technology companies involved in AI continued to be at the forefront of the rise. Changes in the expectations of lowering the key interest rates raised market interest rates and bond market returns decreased to negative figures.

Elo’s equity investments generated a return of 5.1 (2.6) per cent. The asset class with the highest return was listed equities, with a return of 7.0 per cent (4.6 per cent). Equity market returns were supported by expectations of monetary policy easing and, especially in the United States, a significant strengthening of the profit growth expectations of technology companies. Equity market returns were characterised by geographical divergence. The European, Japanese and US markets performed excellently, while the returns were more modest in China and negative in Finland. Elo’s private equity investments generated a return of 2.3 (-0.5) per cent.

Market interest rates rose from the end of last year, as investors re-priced the expectations of lowering key interest rates. The persistence of inflation and the strength of economic data postponed the expected start date and scale of interest rate cuts. This was reflected in negative bond market returns. Elo’s fixed income investments generated a return of 0.7 per cent (1.3 per cent). 

Expectations of a recovery in the real estate investment market have been postponed to the end of the year. The risks of Elo’s real estate portfolio have been effectively distributed, and the long-term outlook is good. The return on real estate investments was 0.0 (-0.3) per cent. The return on other investments was 6.4 per cent (0.4 per cent). Other investments consisted mainly of hedge fund investments, with an excellent return of 6.5 per cent (0.6 per cent).  

Reviews of self-employed persons’ earned incomes concern incomes of less than EUR 25,000 in 2024

Similarly to last year, Elo will continue to review the earned incomes of self-employed persons. This year, the reviews concern earned income of less than EUR 25,000, which has not been adjusted or reviewed for three years. The number of contacts from customers increased to some degree last year, and the feedback indicated that our review process was perceived to be clear. We will take account of the feedback we receive on the process and develop our operations further. 

The transfer period that ended in March was twofold for Elo. YEL transfers had a good result, while TyEL transfers fell short of the target. In the next transfer periods, Elo’s sales activity will still be kept high.

The Finnish economy remains weak. The challenging financial situation of companies has continued since the end of last year. The rise in inflation experienced after the COVID-19 pandemic and the simultaneous slowdown in demand have weakened companies’ finances. At Elo, the amount of TyEL credit losses increased slightly from the previous year but were still at a moderate level. 

Number of rehabilitation decisions increased by 22 per cent

Elo issued more pension decisions than in the previous year. In particular, the number of decisions on old-age pension and partial old-age pension increased early in the year. The increase in pension decisions is attributable to the 2022 index increase. Due to the increase, many people applied for a pension prior to the end of 2022, as a result of which the number of old-age pension decisions was lower than normal in early 2023. The number of vocational rehabilitation decisions also increased by 22 per cent year-on-year.

Outlook

The timing of the easing of monetary policy and the pace of the decline in interest rates are important for the growth of Europe and Finland. The European Central Bank is likely to cut interest rates in the summer and short-term interest rates are expected to fall by around 1.5 percentage points by the end of the year. Economic growth in the euro zone is weak and Finland is in recession. Despite the rise in households’ real incomes, consumption is still cautious. There is potential for a growth surprise in consumption in Europe if interest rates fall significantly and the global industrial cycle strengthens gradually. 

Elo will continue the efficient implementation of the employment pension system, and in accordance with the strategy, wants to increase our market share in TyEL insurance and maintain its position as the market leader in YEL insurance. Elo will continue to invest in the development of work ability services and reducing customers’ work ability risks. According to its strategy, Elo ensures adequate solvency in all market situations. 

Further information:
CEO Carl Pettersson, interview requests Communications Manager Miia Pullinen, tel. +358 (0)40 588 3637

Interim Report 1 January – 31 March 2024 >
Interim Report 1 January – 31 March 2024 presentation >